The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding amongst the political gladiators in the Zimbabwean crisis at the supervision of Thabo Mbeki generated immense media attention. The global media screamed “A breakthrough in Zimbabwe” and with media channels awash with the miracle Morgan-Robert handshake, most people had been duped into a dream that remains elusive.

Like a Hollywood new blockbuster release, events were stage managed in a public relations exercise that would leave many PR strategists green with envy. This contribution seeks to demystify the myths and untruths that have been peddled around the so-called historic event.

A lot of questions remain unanswered around this hullabaloo invented by Pretoria. It is the contention of this contribution that the talks about talks are nothing rather than a red herring to buy time for the illegitimate Mugabe regime. Whilst dialogue is welcome in solving the Zimbabwe crisis, it should be noted that dialogue premised on deception and elite deal making is dithering and fidgeting to nowhere.

History is repeating itself in Zimbabwe as coercion is used as an instrument to deal with dissent and assert political dominion by the ruling ZANU PF. Zimbabwe seems to be heading back to 1979 and 1987, where peace and stability could only be guaranteed by a ZANU PF win.

Item 9 of the MOU states that; “The Parties shall not, during the subsistence of the Dialogue, take any decisions or measures that have a bearing on the agenda of the Dialogue, save by consensus. Such decisions or measures include, but are not limited to the convening of Parliament or the formation of a new government”.

A thorough analysis signals towards a Kenyan style government of national unity (GNU). It should also be taken cognizant that after the March 29th when results pointed to an opposition victory despite the lack of a simple majority as required by the law, the position of the South African government was the formation of a GNU. Furthermore in the preamble of the MOU it is stated that “Acknowledging that we have an obligation of establishing a framework of working together in an inclusive government”. This clearly indicates the pre-emptive nature of these talks about talks, no wonder why there is so much confidence on the part of Pretoria that 2 weeks of intense mediation will achieve what almost 2 years of mediation has failed to achieve.

This shows the prevailing of Pretoria and at the same time a victory for ZANU PF and the stalling of a transition as the Mugabe regime is bought more time in office. The talks thus seek to legitimize and throw a lifeline to a regime that had become out of touch with the electorate. To Mbeki, an MDC government is seen as not desirous and hence his mediation has been more of appeasing Mugabe and blaming Britain unnecessarily for Zimbabwe’s woes just as Mugabe has made it his daily anthem.

More so with Mbeki battling the same elements driving the MDC at home such as the trade union, student and youth movement, the incentives and motivation to him are high to see a stalled MDC transition. The argument is thus the Chiluba scenario that played in Zambia in the 1990s can’t be repeated in Zimbabwe lest the cancer will spread to South Africa.

This partly explains Pretoria’s spirited efforts at the United Nations through its ambassador Dumisani Khumalo to leading a vicious campaign to protect Mugabe by blocking the Security Council from taking action.

It should also be noted that the much hyped signing ceremony comes against a background of South Africa having blocked the adoption of sanctions against the Harare regime at the United Nations. Mugabe having sensed the seriousness of some council members this time around quickly bought into Mbeki’s GNU after playing difficult for a long time and hence his preparation to meet his nemesis Morgan who however did not turn up at the initial event.

Even Mugabe’s state controlled media went on a tirade of criticism against Morgan for failing to pitch up despite the fact that it has always described the MDC as retrogressive running dog of imperialism. The chickens had come to roost, and it was clear to Mugabe and his guardian Mbeki that time is running out before No. 10 Downing Street and 44 Pennsylvania Avenue take action. Therefore as a pre-emptive measure Pretoria crafted the MOU on talks to agree to talk.

This explains the spirited effort to broadcast even live the ceremony of the miracle handshake. Therefore Mbeki can successful argue that any action on Harare outside the talks would hurt and stall the headway that has been made. More so it should be borne in mind that any day further that Mugabe acquires in office is a relief to him. Then why all of a sudden the celebrations and optimism that finally a breakthrough has come? Such amnesia is very baffling given that, the same things this talking to agree to talk sets on its agenda are the same issues that were on the agenda and agreed upon in the preliminary talks that led to constitutional amendment No. 18 and subsequently the 29th of March 2008 harmonized elections.

Also interesting given Mbeki’s continued insistence of talking outside the media circles, is why now all of a sudden his love to have the talks with cameras around.
This unmasks Pretoria’s political chicanery to block action on Mugabe through deception as deadlines get shifted ever since the appointment of Mbeki as mediator. What Pretoria has failed to do is to take stock of why the initial talks and results were not honoured and who was at fault? A snap flashback into history would reveal that Mugabe has never had problems with talks or accommodating his once enemies as long as he is made the leader.

This explains why he unleashed a horrific orgy of violence and terror that made sure that he would win the election through hook and crook and then call for talks where he can bribe the opposition to buy himself legitimacy. Just as he managed to prevail over ZAPU in 1987, Mugabe and Mbeki expect the same episode to replay itself again with the MDC. The major question is can the MDC ride the tiger and not end up in the womb given that they do not have an honest mediator in Mbeki? It’s highly unlikely for the MDC to prevail over ZANU PF in these talks and yield transformative result.

The best they can do is to scrap an elite deal that will accommodate them, through appeasement with a few cabinet posts and some cosmetic power concession. This is the most sought scenario by ZANU PF and Mbeki as it will give them time regalvanise and at the same time hoping the MDC will grow weary. At the same time such an arrangement would buy ZANU PF the legitimacy it has been seeking particularly from the western world. Another scenario would be an agreement towards a transitional government that will lead to an election.

This might have many positive possibilities for change to take place but the major challenge might be the duration of the transition. Mugabe might argue for a longer time so as to buy himself and ZANU PF more time to rebuild their dilapidated empire. Such a move would also give ammunition to Mugabe’s fellow Africanists to block any western action on Harare, since a process to normalize the situation will be underway.

Therefore these talks about talks have been premised around the throwing a lifeline to a fledgling dictatorship rather than giving the people of Zimbabwe a voice. Mugabe after the March elections made it clear that they could not just surrender a country that they got through the barrel of gun by a mere pen and X.

The same pen that they could not listen to on the 29th of March 2008 is the same pen that has cast another X on the 21st of July 2008. Why would they be compelled to listen to it when the tide goes against them as it has done in the past? Won’t we have other talks about talks for talks? ZANU PF and Mbeki are dithering and fidgeting and shifting goalposts always. Therefore the hullabaloo about the miracle handshake is just a fool’s paradise.