If talks collapse, Zanu PF will be really finished
Opinion
August 11, 2008 | By Eddie Cross | © zimbabwemetro.com ⋅
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We never said it would be easy - yesterday and 14 hours of intense negotiation and still no agreement. The talks resumed this morning and it is quite clear that Morgan Tsvangirai is holding the line on the demand that the MDC emerge from these talks with a mandate to form the next government
and to control the State with effect from the 1st of September.
In the final analysis this is a straight fight between Thabo Mbeki and Zanu PF - the former has to secure an agreement that is acceptable to the MDC and also to the international community. The MDC has to accept the deal if it is to secure the approval of the general population and the latter if the
international community is to then agree to fund the stabilisation and recovery of the Zimbabwe economy.
The position of Zanu PF has always been quite clear - if they accept such a deal it means two years of working with the MDC in a junior capacity - with the MDC holding the reins of power and then at the end of the transitional period facing an election under free and fair conditions with a free press,
no violence or intimidation, an independent election commission and international observers.
In such an electoral process it is likely that Zanu PF would cease to exist as a political party - at least in the House of Assembly and perhaps in all local government Councils. Like the National Party in South Africa at best they would end up as a minor player. More immediately and of great concern
to all of their leadership and many hundreds of others, they would face a independent Judicial system and possible prosecution for either human rights abuse, political violence and murder or corruption.
When viewed like that this always was going to be a power game. After all that is politics. We will know today what the outcome has been and I remain convinced that Mr. Mbeki will have to get a deal - he simply cannot go back to South Africa without agreement and must therefore use his very considerable power as President of South Africa, to force Zanu PF to accept its fate.
What happens if he fails? That has always been a possibility - many have said a probability. Those skeptics have argued that he simply does not have what it takes to exercise power at this level. That he does not have the moral authority or the leverage to force compliance. I disagree - he has
always had the power to do so and has chosen not to use it up to now. I agree with Tony Leon when he said on SA television this morning that this thing could have been fixed 8 years ago and the long nightmare of the past decade avoided. But that is easier said than done. Right now its high noon
on Main Street.
If he fails this test then what happens to the rest of us? If I was on the Zanu side I would not come out of this with any optimism - if anything I would be tempted to start to pack my bags and leave. If they do not sign today, Zanu PF is really finished. They have no legitimacy; their administration will not be accepted by anybody of significance. The SADC and possibly the AU will ostracize them. Sanctions will be further tightened on their leadership and the collapse of the economy will continue - eventually
making it nearly impossible to live here.
Millions will flee to other countries - 80 per cent to South Africa where they will destabilize a fragile social system and security. The local security forces will disintegrate, eventually threatening the security of what remains of the regime. Capital will flee the country and little or no investment will come in to replace it and starvation and hunger will haunt what remains of the local population.
Most commentators would predict that the regime could not last more than a few months under such conditions. I am inclined to agree but we could simply slide into anarchy and chaos with Zimbabwe becoming a pitiful failed State of the worst kind - unable to feed or care for the majority of the people
and only a small minority remaining at home.
What are the chances of a violent end to the regime - in this country I think minimal. We do not have any neighbors who might allow bases for an armed rebellion, we have no arms and even if the armed forces took matters into their own hands the result would not be recognised or accepted. It would be futile. Biti was about right when he was asked what MDC would do if they could not get what they wanted - he replied “we would let them stew in their own juices”.
What if Mbeki does put his foot down and gets a deal? Then I would expect the leaders to clear the deal with their respective parties and then a final agreement to be prepared and ready for signing in South Africa at the SADC summit on Saturday. After that we would have the opening of Parliament on
the following Wednesday followed by the House voting on the legislation to give effect to the agreement and then the new Government being appointed by the 1st of September.
If the transitional arrangements are acceptable to the international community then I would expect things to happen quite fast - by the end of September the basic outline of things to come would be in place - the Reserve Bank would have acted to start to stabilize the economic and monetary system, the emergency programme to get recovery under way would be in place and people should begin to see real things happening on the ground.
In six months I would expect inflation to be down to single digits and the economy should start to exhibit real growth for the first time since 1998.
The dollar will strengthen and exports begin to recover. Investment inflows would be positive - again for the first time in a decade and tourism would begin. The contrast between these two scenarios is so great that I find it difficult to believe that Mr. Mbeki can do anything behind those closed doors in Harare except tell the Zanu delegation that their future is sealed and they have no option but to sign.
Mr Cross,you seem to suggest the MDC has an upper hand,but I beg to differ.Looks like the MDC is actually giving legitimacy and life to a crumbling regime.
I noticed in mugabe’s heroes speech today he spoke of America and Britain as his ally.Why the change of heart bob.Yesterday they were your enemy.I think bob is suffering from dementia.He is just a stupid confused old fart.
MDC is desperate and are trying to give life to a crumbling regimr just to get in power. Does n’t seem like ZANU end game this.
WE ARE THE SURVIVORS-THE GREAT SURVIVORS-TODAY WE CELEBRATE OUR HEROES WHO GAVE THEIR ALL TO FREE US FROM PEOPLE LIKE CROSS -WHO HATED BLACKS AND WHO PRETEND TO HAVE CHANGED NOW-JUST TO FOOL MORGAN AND GET BACK INTO OFFICE—-OH NO NO NO NO MR CROSS-YOUR BIGGEST MISTAKE IS THINKING ZANU PF IS FINISHED-IF MDC MISS THIS OPPORTUNITY TO GET INTO A JOINT DEAL THEY WILL NEVER RULE ZIMBABWE AGAIN. NEVER EVER-THIS IS THEIR ONLY CHANCE-DONT FORGET WE HAVE TOLD YOU IN THE PAST THAT THE MDC PUPPET OF BROWN MORGAN WILL NEVER RULE ZIMBABWE. WHERE WILL YOU MDC GO IF YOU MISS THE BOAT? WAIT FOR THE COUNTRY TO COLLAPSE AND MOVE IN? DREAM ON-NOW THAT THE DEAL WAS IMMINENT THE BBC STARTED TAKING AN INTEREST IN THE ZIM TALKS-DESIGNED TO REMIND MORGAN WHO THE MASTER IS AND THAT HE IS WATCHING HIM. HE IS OBVIOUSLY FOLLOWING ORDERS-I HAVE ALWAYS SAID THEIR OBJECTIVE IS MUGABE OUT AND MBEKI TO FAIL-MORGAN HAS NOT FORGOTTEN THOSE INSTRUCTIONS YET. I THOUGHT HE HAD GONE TO SLEEP-NOW IF HE GOES ON LIKE THIS MUTAMBARA WILL CHANGE SIDES AND THAT WILL BE THE END OF THE SO CALLED MAJORITY. IMAGINE ZANU PF RELOADED WITH A MAJORITY IN PARLIAMENT? MORGAN WATCH YOUR STEP.WE WILL NOT BE FOOLED INTO FALSEHOODS BY YOUR FOOLISHNESS-IN ZANU WE ARE ALWAYS AWAKE-ALERT-ON GUARD. WE WILL NEVER FORGET OUR BROTHERS AND SISTERS WHO SACRIFICED THEIR LIVES SO WE COULD RECLAIM OUR FARMS AND RESOURCES FROM THE IMPERIALISTS.
I AM GLAD MORGAN DID NOT ATTEND HEROES DAY-HE WAS HIDING IN THE MINES DURING THE WAR-WHY SHOULD HE? NOWARDAYS HE HAS GRADUATED TO HIDING IN EMBASSIES-PLEASE ZIM ARMY THIS CHAP CANT BE YOUR CHIEF IN COMMAND-ON WHAT BASIS? DO NOT EVER SALUTE THIS PUPPET-THE ONLY SALUTE HE NEEDS IS A AK47 BULLET
PAMBERI NE ZANU-VIVA WAR VETS-VIVA OUR FALLEN CMDES.WITH OR WITHOUT MDC WE WILL MAKE IT.**** MDC.
EDDY CROSS DONT MAKE ME CROSS!!! ZANU PF IS FOR LIFE.
look man, joining the struggle was voluntary. how much support did the fighters who were armed get from ordinary people who were not armed? it is not the people who fed them? who hid them? who sheltered them? Who really took the b**** risk? This is the arrogance and irreparable igorance that forms the core of zanu people. my friend zimbabwe has been around much longer than zanupf, this party that does not even have a real focus other than ruling for ruling’s sake–even against the wish of zimbabweans.
zanu people really do not have any measure of the kind of s**t they are in-blissful ignorance! what is the inflation rate? what is the unemployment rate? zvinoziviwa naaniko komuredhi vangu? Not solving these problems this time around has the likelihood that the next time amnesty will not be a matter of discussion brother.
I have asked the question several times including on the MDC contact mail, why does Morgan not answer to charges against him that he was a sellout during the war in Buhera. When his position was compromised, he was transferred to the masasa area by the selous scouts. This documentary appeared on TV several times so that there could be a response but up to this time, the silence has been deafening. I can only conclude thats its true and if so then there is no way that the armed forces can salute such a chap. Kana ichifa nyika yacho ngaife hayo.
son of bob.You are such an a**sehole.You will get nowhere in life.You are doomed till the end just like your gay mugabe and his little zanu ****roaches.If **** head bob stays in power then Zimbabwe and all its people are going to die.Di**head mugabe is the most useless savage to have ever existed on earth.When he dies ,Zimbabwe and the world are going to celebrate for ever the death of the worlds biggest a**sehole mugabe.You are blind to the fact that ugly bastard mugabe is taking you back to the time before civilization.You cannot be the son of bob,because westernised twat faced mugabe has no balls.His so called children are not his.They are the product of his whoreing domestic cleaning wifes affair.That makes you a bastard.
Can we please make sure that Mbeki as the Chair of the SADC is only the Chair and some one else be appointed as a new mediator because some mediator has to report to the Chair as to what is taking place. Jacob Zuma where are you we need you very much, you have so much power in your tongue that reminds us of our Father Madiba when he was fresh and strong
SON OF BOB OH SON OF BOB DID YOU KNOW THAT YOU ARE A DOG JUST LIKE YOUR FATHER, LOOK A DOG DOES NOT SEE THAT IT HAS DONE ITS ****TING IT WILL JUST GO BACK AND CHOW ON THAT **** LIKE YOU DO, YOUR FATHER GAVE YOU TO EAT BUT NOW ITS DIGESTED SO **** IT AND MOVE ON, IN ACTUAL FACT YOU ARE NOT EVEN IN ZIMBABWE YOU ARE SEEKING FORIEGN CURRENCY TO TAKE CARE OF YOUR FAMILY BACKK HOME BUT YOU STILL SUPPORT THAT DOG. LOOK WHY DONT YOU GO BACK HOME WHERE YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU ARTE GOIING TO HAVE FOR SUPPER TONIGHT FOR THERE IS NO MAIZE MEAL IN THE SUPER MARKETS NOW SUPER MARKETS ARE SELF MARKETS. PLEASE BE AS CLEAN AS A CAT AND ILLUSIVE TO LIKE MY FATHER TSVANGIRAI YOU BEAT HIM BUT HE GOT 9 LIVES ACTUALLY MORE THAT NINE FOR HE IS A GIFT FROM GOD TO FREE US FROM DOGS LIKE YOU IF I WAS WHITE I WOULD SAY THIS TO YOU “**** YOU” BUT I’M BLACK SO I WILL SAY THIS TO YOU MACHENDE AKO
if eddy cross thinks zanu pf will be finished -then why is the mdc bothering with the talks-why cant they just sit back and watch us zanoids suffering till the end. these are the foolish people who advise morgan tsvangirai.
There will never ba a regime change in Zimbabwe. Zanu pf NEVER means exactly that. mdc will be a weak spot.
“In six months I would expect inflation to be down to single digits and the economy should start to exhibit real growth for the first time since 1998. The dollar will strengthen and exports begin to recover. Investment inflows would be positive - again for the first time in a decade and tourism would begin. The contrast between these two scenarios is so great that I find it difficult to believe that Mr. Mbeki can do anything behind those closed doors in Harare except tell the Zanu delegation that their future is sealed and they have no option but to sign.”
This is not real. Even SA has inflation above 10%. Lets be truthful, rebuilding Zimbabwe will be long and hard. It will get worse before it gets better. Undoing Zanu mess will take time because the capital and skills are not there. Also getting rid of corruption will take time. What will you do with all those corrupt officials in Public Services, Parastatals, Local Gvt? How do you get ridf of them? Whom do you replace them with. All these questions remain begging.
i have a personal issue with Bob,why did he stop the killing? i am an orphan because of the gukurahundi(bob’s madness),i was hoping the and wishing the death toll of more than 25000 but now that he was killing his own tribe he decided otherwise,but it would have been a different case with matebeleland……….Bob i dare you to pull out of the talks right now and go and kill 20000 more of your own tribe and then maybe that will be 50/50
some people will never stop to amaze me, well mr cross this is Zimbabwe not by any chance an extension of britain or united states of america! we will decide on our own, no foreign interferences. mr cross you were part and parcel of the regime that Zanu PF and Zapu PF fought for us Zimbabweans to see a better Zimbabwe under majority rule.
Talks may fail but our pride as Zimbabweans will never fade away! We will conquer as Zimbabweans the evils of whiteman. We are prepared in all respects! to hell cross!
baabba ndochema ropa revana veZimbabweeeeeeeee!!!!!!! uuuuuuhwwwi ndochema!!!! Mr Cross watchout!!!!!!!!!!! Look on Zimbabwean flag and you see that red, it coulor stands for the blood. I mean it stands for the blood real blood!
People of Zimbabwe lets look at what is happening in Zimbabwe its according to the will of God and the Bible says, I’m the author and finisher of your faith and then it goes on to say I SET THE GOVERNMENTS so what this foolish Mugabe is doing by saying he follows the rules and laws of the Bible he is full of **** for he is no Church goer nor a Christian that makes his people suffer what kind of Noah is he that Builds an Arch then make the people that are on board the arch die.
So Mugabe is going to get his punishment for all that he is doing and its not going to come from Morgan of the west, it may come in the form of an illness that can not be cured lest not forget that we are living in the last days and what is happening to Zimbabwe is in the Bible so lets pray and fall into the Arch that our leader is BUilding Tsvangirai for when naoh Built his arch not everyone entered it the very fortunate ones only lived for they were Blessed so lets Bless Mugabe because the one that curses you does not deserve a curse back but a blessing such that they live longer to see our success, then again do not forget that the Good Book says Blessed is he who is cursed so Morgan is saying in other words lets not fight fire with fire.
Mugabe I’m sorry to say that you are a very violent Man but our Naoh is not Violent but he is a true leader and leads by example you beat him up but he is still going strong for the good of the people of Zimabawe so, you should feel ashamed of your self and just to remind you that you Titanic is sinking but you can not see it yet for you are still wining and dining, so long my friend for My Gosd tells me you had your chance and you cabinet is going down with you in the name of Jesus I pray Amen.
P.S: My prayers are always powerfull
Morgidza Tsvangwa stop being an idiot and saying stupid inhuman things, for the reasl blood you talk about was shed a long time ago and we thank the heros for doing that but we can not mourn our beloved ones a million times for they are now gone and the Bible says that the dead are gone to rest in peace so why don’t you let them rest and stop being an Idiot Like Mugabe, grow up its high time you and Mugabe Grow up for this is not a joke nor is it a game because the Blood you talk of was at war but there is no war and Blood is being shed by Mugabe and people are dying of Hunger because of idiots like you and Mugabe,
I pray for you in three days time you will see what happens to you and your family
P.S: Don’t mess with the Power of God my Boys
babaiwe nhuka irema rudziiko iro rinozviti “son of God” we will never fade away to recognise ourselves as Zimbabweans, this is our birth right will defend it with or without Mugabe or Tsvangirayi go hang “son of god” ! this is my country and yr country if you think UK and US are saviours from God go to hell! son of a bitch!
morgidza (miles) If you think Zimbabwe is so great then why dont you leave Britain and go back.Is life just to good for you here in England.
Tsvangirai not indispensable
Most Zimbabweans will be bitterly disappointed that the long power-sharing talks are still to be concluded, largely because MDC-T leader Morgan Tsvangirai moved the goalposts yet again on a crucial issue, that of the structure of the Government.
Tsvangirai has a record of almost destroying himself by his insistence on saying “no” whenever agreements are close. He split his party over the Senate; he destroyed any possibility of winning the presidency in the first round by backing out of a deal with other parties.
He may feel he is being decisive and strong by saying “no”, but all he does is delay the inevitable and lose power and influence and show a weakness that does not impress anyone.
He is not indispensable. It is quite possible for a coalition of Zanu-PF and MDC to run the country and, if it is true that Tsvangirai repudiated positions agreed by his top team, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that he can be replaced as MDC-T leader or watch a second split in his party.
Tsvangirai now needs to show he has the statesmanship for the positions he aspires to, rather than just being a negative force who wishes to block others who want Zimbabwe to become a great nation.
The critical point in power-sharing talks is exactly what the title suggests — how to share power. None of the three parties can monopolise power.
The election results for the House of Assembly make that impossible. Without a coalition, there can be no budget passed and, thus, quite soon no Government “to share”.
The talks, sensibly, established common positions on a wide range of critical issues where the three parties have disagreed in the past. It is no use having a coalition “power-sharing” government if a Cabinet spends most of its time arguing about positions rather than doing something.
Agreement was reached on most issues, with give-and-take on all sides. A future coalition government now has, in effect, a common manifesto, giving the basic policy framework that the Cabinet and individual ministers can flesh out as they go about the ordinary day-to-day business of running the country, regardless of what party any particular minister belongs to.
But, regardless of how Zimbabwe will be governed in future, today it needs a coalition government since no party won a decisive victory in the March parliamentary elections.
It also needs a broad government since
there are a lot of problems that need to be solved fast.
Perhaps the most remarkable facet of the talks is that it took just two weeks for the negotiating teams of the three parties to agree on the common manifesto and the common approach to most problems. Clearly, there is a common Zimbabwean political culture and most solutions to most problems can attract huge support.
However, after Tsvangirai signed the Memorandum of Understanding along with the leaders of Zanu-PF and the other MDC formation, I began nurturing a belief that something could, after all, come out of all this.
I stopped thinking about what good the talks would do for the opposition and I started thinking about what good they would do for the whole country, for every Zimbabwean.
Yes, I started as a disbeliever but over the past weeks I have grown to believe that the best hope for national healing and economic recovery lies in a political settlement between our leaders.
I, therefore, cannot understand why Tsvangirai is apparently holding out on signing an agreement when the other two parties are willing and seem to already have done so.
I urge Tsvangirai to be reasonable in his demands and think about our welfare as Zimbabweans. Prices are going up every day and the black market seems to be the only source of goods (expensive ones at that!).
We cannot continue like this. Statesmanship is about knowing when to make compromises and I think this is one of those times.
Even the liberation war fighters compromised at Lancaster in 1979.
I only hope that you guys passing these comments are in Zim enjoying the 100%that we were bombarded with prior to June 27. th situation on the bground is pathetic - the whole nation is on diet just because one man thinks he liberated this nation. if we are to go bt the zpf propaganda, did Mbuya nehanda and Sekuru Kaguvi die so that rich blacks will enslave poor blacks. eddie cross or no eddie cross, britain or no britain - what is that the current government is doing to help us reach the 100% empowerment? it is pathetic for a leader of a nation that grows cotton ahs got a massive textile plant in chegutu (that has been producing varied textile including military fatigue) to thank the chinese for donating military fatigue to the army. the very same person says zim will never be colony again. does being a colony onl;y apply when u are colonised by britain and USA and not by Look East? we are already finished zpf and all. i think people need to read the other article by Eddie Cross - Mugabe’s Ian smith predicament - u will realise that it’s not a quaetion of where Eddie stood before 1980 but what lessons we can draw from his experiences as he has been close to no 1 Chancellor still the 70’s. M out
Unless smeone knows exactly what was happening behind the closed doors, i think it is premature to conclude that MT has moved goal posts. do we know the original positions of the posts? how far have they been moved and why? Like MT has said in his letter - it is not about positions but about the will of the people. what do the poeple want? what did we vote for on 29 March? With the way the negotiations were going, were our wishes inspirations as stated on 29 March being addressed or if he had signed he woud have betrayed us? let’s look at history and see how Bishop Muzo rushed into signing something in 1978/9 - did it solve rhodesia’s problem. i am tired, i want change but not a quick fix change like the lancaster one which came back to haunt us in 2000 (land invasion or redistribution). I trust MT and i believe he had genuine reasons for walking out. i was depresssed nezuro when he waked not because he walked out but because i realised the journey was still on. things are tight but i believe a quick fix solution will leave them there - tight/
I’m shaking in my boots.