The following Opinion Article was written By Chenjerai Chitsaru. He is a Zimbabwean Journalist in Exile. You can view other news and views on their site: Zimbabwe Journalists.com

THE chances of the Global Political Agreement being abrogated are virtually non-existent. For Zanu PF, there would be nothing to live for – virtually.

For the MDC formations, it would be a form of aluta continua. For their entire existence so far, “struggle” has been their middle name.

Without the GPA, they would return to the trenches.

For Zanu PF, there might be temporary relief among some top dogs in the party: their cushy jobs would be safe, albeit for a while. Their luxurious lifestyles, forged on the emaciated backs of the so-called common people, would continue for the moment. But globally, ironically, Zanu PF would be as good as dead. Not many of their allies, including Russia and China , would be convinced that their protégé had performed on the basis of good faith.

The suspicion that Zanu PF is inherently incapable of acting in good faith would thus be confirmed. The countries might decide to do “an Iran ” on Zimbabwe – persuade the party to cut its losses and go for a compromise, as Iran has done over its nuclear adventure. The party might salvage something. But, essentially, it will have lost the initiative – that is if it ever had it in its firm grasp.

Recent developments might have had the effect of heightening tension between the two groups. But it was really another play on the same theme: brinkmanship. In pulling out of the Cabinet, the MDC-T presented Zanu PF with its stiffest challenge yet. The appointment of cabinet ministers to replace the MDC-T’s team seemed so nakedly a ploy nobody took it seriously. But it did help bring home the point to many people that Zimbabwe ’s future is definitely linked to the two parties agreeing on some formula which doesn’t leave either looking like a dead duck.

Previously, Zanu PF may have thought it held all the aces. But the deck has changed completely. In a manner of speaking, Fate may have dealt the party a rotten hand.

What may be difficult is for Zanu PF to keep its eye on the ball while at the same time watching out for a serious split at the top. To be considered is the likelihood of a group from the party deciding that its future lies in an alliance with the MDC formations – particularly in Matabeleland . The fight over the party’s vice-presidency could precipitate a crisis that could benefit the opposition.

But even in the absence of such good fortune, the MDC seems to hold the upper hand.

This is in spite of the former ruling party controlling the entire media landscape. Yes, there are a number of independent newspapers. Yes, the internet has helped the opposition, but the failure of the government to successfully sell the Zanu PF story to the people has its roots in something quite incapable pf manipulation: the facts on the ground.

Zanu PF is aware of this and is now prepared to do its damnedest to ensure it alters the odds in its favour. Murder, violence and skullduggery of any other kind will be employed incessantly before the next elections are due. What is difficult to believe is that such tactics will work with the people this time. Most now seem convinced that Zanu PF is bereft of any new, constructive ideas to lead the country out of the present morass – except the old formula of killing and scaring the people. In a free and fair election, the people seem determined to give the party such a bloody nose it could eventually bleed to death.

The imponderable could be the reaction of the rest of the continent. So far, even Sadc and the African Union seem not to be entirely convinced that Zanu PF can be trusted to act in good faith. There have been occasions when both have indicated President Mugabe and Zanu PF could be more forthcoming in accommodating the MDC. But they have not made the sort of noise to convince Mugabe that there might come a time when they might both decide they have had enough of his shilly-shallying: it will time to give him an ultimatum.

Recent events on the continent point to an ambivalence among African leaders on tackling errant leaders with a decisiveness which leaves no doubt on what their position is. In Guinea , 150 unarmed citizens were killed in a stadium as they \staged a protest against the military leader. To top it all, the soldiers raped women so savagely even diehard pan-Africans who will forgive the continent’s leaders for any savagery they inflict on their people were alarmed.

Guinea has had many killings since independence from the French in 1958, one year after Ghana blazed the trail. Guinea gave one of its greatest sons, Diallo Telli, as the first secretary-general of the Organisation of African Unity. Telli died in prison, apparently the victim of Sekou Toure’s summary treatment of all his real and imagined enemies.

The African reaction to the savagery in Conakry was not as critical as some people expected. True, the African Union did call on the soldier named Camara to launch an independent inquiry into the savagery. Camara was also called upon to give up the leadership of the country and call for elections. But he seemed to be taking his own sweet time.

What seemed very clear was that Camara knew of the plan to kill and rape his fellow citizens – only because they did not want him to be their president. It seemed to have been planned meticulously, with his approval.

How Africa can continue to be led by people who will order the killing of their own people on a whim may condemn the continent to decades of totalitarian, murderous rule. The AU was expected to be more assertive in tackling these problems. But that was a forlorn hope. Mugabe is probably aware of this, hence his stubbornness in refusing to accept the inevitable – a decent exit.

But, like all good things, all bad things also come to an end. Shooting 150 people in cold blood and raping women in public will not save Camara in the end.

Zimbabweans are bolstered in their struggle against bloody dictatorship by the same faith that inspired the freedom fighters to fight on until the settler regime was dislodged.

They had RIGHT on their side, even if the MIGHT was on the enemy’s side.