The actual events of this past week are still shrouded in secrecy. The negotiation teams are sworn to silence and the press has had to subsist on rumor and the odd leaks, none of which are that accurate. If you are watching the media as we are – skimming the daily press from across the globe for anything on Zimbabwe, you can however get a picture of what possibly transpired last week.
It started of course with the visit of the Elders, Jimmy Carter, Kofi Annan and Graca Machel. They had planned their visit some weeks before and although the American Embassy tried to keep a low profile on the visit, when a American Secret Service detail arrived in Harare to prepare for the visit (Carter gets protection for life) the game was on. They were coming to assess the humanitarian crisis, they stated – did not have anything to do with the talks on the future or the political crisis.
Terrified of their own shadows, Zanu PF reacted in a panic by denying them entry visas and what would otherwise have been a low profile visit by three elder statesmen turned into a political circus. It was the best thing that could have happened as far as Zimbabwe was concerned. The media gathered and the human rights fraternity in Zimbabwe traveled south. In South Africa the powerful human rights movement – honed by years of opposition to apartheid, swung into action.
As a consequence the visit not only achieved all they had set out to do but also focused attention on the tyrannical regime in Harare and the linkages between the political crisis and the humanitarian crisis, the very fact that the one has created the other. Another aspect that I only appreciated later, was that having three such experienced leaders on tap, meant that they very quickly grasped the core issues and were able to elucidate these in later interviews and opinion pieces. Jimmy Carter in particular, was very clear.
It helped of course that the credentials of the trio could not be challenged. Zanu PF would have been better advised to have welcomed the team and afforded them every facility – except the presence of the pesky media who then get into the dark corners where an official delegation cannot go on their guided tours.
Then the US slapped further personal sanctions on four individuals who have had extensive dealings with the Mugabe regime. Two were local and two were Asian. The most important aspect of this action was the message it sent to all those who are doing deals with the regime – I can think of a few, who must have shivered in their shoes at the thought that they might be next! I especially appreciated Carters clear statement on this issue on television – Zimbabwe faced no sanctions of any kind, he stated, the sanctions were all personal and aimed at those responsible for the economic and political crisis.
The impact of this flood of media attention and the new information gathered and released on the South African mediated talks are not known, but it must have been significant. Perhaps this explains why the South Africans threw such a blanket of silence and secrecy around the talks. The two teams arrived on Monday evening and exchanged documents. On Tuesday they made no progress and on Wednesday, Morgan Tsvangirai issued a statement that the talks were going nowhere and he felt that the MDC should leave the process until a new mediator was appointed.
This threat seems to have brought in the South African government who up to then had been preoccupied with the ongoing political struggles taking place in South Africa ahead of the 2009 elections. There was a brief flurry of statements from the leadership on the talks and Miranda Strydom – often a spokesperson for the ANC on SABC 3, made several disclosures. What annoys me about her interventions are her persistent remarks to the effect that MDC is holding up progress by ’squabbling’ over power. As if that is what this is all about.
Then came the astonishing news – not made public by the participants or the mediator that agreement had been reached on the wording of Amendment number 19. The news just slipped out, first a whisper and then more open disclosure. Nothing more. MDC had clearly stated in advance that this was not the whole subject of these discussions – we wanted to settle the many other issues still outstanding.
But it was not to be – Zanu PF was not mandated to talk about such matters, was the argument behind closed doors – the mediator simply gave in and closed the session and the teams returned home. What next?
Mugabe in the meantime went off to the Middle East where he attended a UN sponsored meeting on development finance – The UN trying to maintain focus on the Millennium Development Goals that have been much neglected of late in the middle of the global financial meltdown and the American elections. There he trundled out his old mantra – the melt down in my country is due to the fact that I can no longer shop at Harrods or send my children to fancy schools and Universities in the West. That explains 10 years of negative growth and the total collapse of the country’s social system.
He did not say it quite like that – but what he did say meant just that.
In the struggle to establish a transitional government that might just work, under near impossible conditions, the next step should be for the two parties to agree on an official version of Amendment number 19 and to then publish this in the Government Gazette – possibly next Friday. Then the people of Zimbabwe have a month to study this and to analyse its implications and content.
In the second week of January, Parliament will convene to debate the amendment and agree on its contents and pass it into law. On paper then, at least, the Global Political Agreement signed by the parties on the 11th September will be law. In Zimbabwe that may not be very much as the law is seldom observed or upheld where politics is concerned. But still, it will become the law of the land.
On paper this will mean that now we can form a new government – Mr. Mugabe can be sworn in as President, Mr Tsvangirai as Prime Minister. But most significantly, the Junta that has run Zimbabwe into the ground in the past decade, will be replaced by a democratically elected Council of Ministers, who will have responsibility for government. This new government will run the country until a new constitution is agreed and adopted and fresh elections held under free and fair conditions – perhaps in mid 2011. That is what is possible – on paper. Turning it into reality is another thing altogether!
Editor’s note:
Eddie Cross is the MDC Member of Parliament for Bulawayo South and the MDC Policy Coordinator General.
Mudhara dzidza kureva chokwadi
Dear Eddie Cross,
Let me start with the facts first and my comments are at the end.
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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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The Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act (S. 494) is an act passed by the United States Congress which sanctioned Zimbabwe for its involvement in the Second Congo War and the government’s unwillingness to make the transition to democracy
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From Whitehouse.gov
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Statement by the President
Today I have signed into law S. 494, the “Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act of 2001.” This Act symbolizes the clear bipartisan resolve in the United States to promoting human rights, good governance, and economic development in Africa. My Administration shares fully the Congress’ deep concerns about the political and economic hardships visited upon Zimbabwe by that country’s leadership. I hope the provisions of this important legislation will support the people of Zimbabwe in their struggle to effect peaceful democratic change, achieve economic growth, and restore the rule of law.
Section 4(c) of the Act purports to direct the executive branch to oppose and vote against the extension of loans or the cancellation of debt in international financial institutions unless and until I make a certification or national interest determination. I am concerned that this provision burdens my constitutional authority in the area of foreign affairs to conduct negotiations and cast votes in international organizations. I will construe the provision as being subject to my exclusive authority to negotiate or vote in international financial institutions.
GEORGE W. BUSH
THE WHITE HOUSE,
December 21, 2001.
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From CNN.com November 15, 2008 — Updated 1303 GMT
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ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) — Pakistan’s government has agreed to a $7.6 billion aid deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Pakistan’s top finance official said.
The IMF endorsed Pakistan’s homegrown program after a review and agreed to the aid package to be paid out overtwo years to help Pakistan meet short term financial needs, including balance of payments, said Shaukat Tareen, the finance advisor to Pakistan’s prime minister.
“The only thing which we debated was the interest rates,” Tareen said. Pakistan agreed to a two percent interest rate, he said.
Pakistan expects to receive the first installment before the end of the month with further payments spread over a two-year period, according to The Associated Press.
The loan will be used to bolster Pakistan’s dwindling foreign currency reserves amid concern that a run on the Pakistani rupee could force the country to default on its international debt, AP said.
The U.S. sees nuclear-armed Pakistan as a crucial regional ally in the so-called “War on Terror” and is concerned that economic instability in the country could undermine the government in Islamabad’s efforts to counter insurgents in the semiautonomous northwestern tribal regions bordering Afghanistan.
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SW Radio Africa (London) 28 July 2008 by Violet Gonda
Allafrica.com
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Last Friday the United States broadened sanctions against members of the Mugabe regime and its supporters.
Below is the list of the new companies and entities added to the sanctions list by the US Treasury Department:
The Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ), the sole marketing and export agent for all minerals, except gold and silver, mined in Zimbabwe;
The Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation (ZMDC), involved in investment in the mining industry in Zimbabwe, and in planning, coordinating and implementing mining projects on behalf of the Government of Zimbabwe;
The Zimbabwe Iron and Steel Company (ZISCO), Zimbabwe’s largest steel works;
The Agricultural Development Bank of Zimbabwe (Agribank), a commercial bank owned by the Government of Zimbabwe;
The Industrial Development Corporation of Zimbabwe Ltd, a state-owned enterprise that owns a large number of companies operating in the industrial sector, including the chemical, clothing and textiles, mineral processing, and motor and transport sectors;
The Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe, a financing entity;
Zimre Holdings Limited, an investment and reinsurance entity;
ZB Financial Holdings Limited, a holding company for a group of companies involved in commercial and merchant banking;
And 4 major subsidiaries of ZB Financial Holdings Limited: ZB Bank Limited (Zimbank), ZB Holdings Limited, Intermarket Holdings Limited, and Scotfin Limited.
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My comments
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The government of Zimbabwe lies a lot, everyone knows that. But anyone who says there are only targeted sanctions imposed on Zimbabwe is also a liar. Here are the reasons why:
The suffering that you see right now in Zimbabwe is mainly because of Zanu PF corruption, greed and selfishness. BUT the suffering of innocent Zimbabwean people is compounded by sanctions targeted at ruining the economy.
Any decent independent economist who is honest will tell you that sanctions are compounding the situation.
In black and white its written in the ZiDER Act that the US will oppose any financial support to the Zimbabwean Government from the IMF, World Bank and African Development Bank. ZiDERA is targeted at the Reserve Bank by preventing it from managing the economy like any other central bank in the world. For example, look at the case of Pakistan which is borrowing 7.5B to stabilise its currency. Zimbabwe can not stabilise its currency like Pakistan by borrowing from the IMF because the US would oppose that. If the currency (Zim dollar) is unstable the dollar will devalue, which causes all imports to sky-rocket, which causes inflation and a thriving black market, which further causes the dollar to devalue, so its a vicious cycle. Its like a nuclear reaction out of control. Lets also not forget that loans from IMF are not ‘aid’ as such because they are loans. The global economy as it is was created by IMF in such a way that poor countries and developing countries open their markets without fear of running out of forex because the IMF will always be there to provide forex loans in times when those poor countries are experiencing low inflows of forex. That facility is called ‘balance of payment support’ and is not available to Zimbabwe but is available to other countries, for example, Pakistan.
So, the point I am making in simple terms is that the sanctions written in black and white are targeted at ruining the economy. Who suffers when there is inflation and devaluation? Ordinary people of course because they can not steal money from the Reserve Bank like Bob and Gono.
Also note that failure of big parastatals like Zisco Steel, MMCZ and Agribank, which are under sanctions, hurts the thousands of employees who work for those companies and other companies that depend on those companies. There are not many big companies in Zimbabwe. Take Zisco Steel, for example. Zisco is the only company that manufactures steel in Zimbabwe, so its failure will affect every other company that uses steel as a raw material. For example, construction and informal traders who manufacture window frames, steel gates etc.
I support MDC and I want Tsvangirai to be President instead of Bob. But, I carry out my own researches in order to find the truth. I wish every Zimbabwean could do the same. Read vana veZimbabwe. Kusaziva Kufa!
It would be to get a response from Eddie Cross.
Further to what I have written above.
Do we realise the whole of the City of Kwekwe depends on Zisco Steel? So, if the sanctions on Zisco Steel cause Zisco to fail, wont Kwekwe become a ghost town? Kwekwe will definitely be a ghost town without Zisco Steel, and every family in Kwekwe will suffer as a result. How do sanctions on the whole of Kwekwe make Mugabe and Gono suffer? Wont Gono and Mugabe just loot the little forex inflows whilst Kwekwe households are wallowing in poverty?
It would be good to get a response from Eddie Cross on this one.
mhofu,
Wikipideia entries can be made by anyone and do not have to be proofed the way a news agency would be required to. All the other sources that you cite are talking of sanctions but these are targeted sanctions to individuals or companies/organizations that facilitate the Mugabe regime to externalize funds.
There is no act that imposes wholesale sanctions on the country of Zimbabwe the way Rhodesia was sanctioned. If the government in Zimbabwe wanted to make purchases abroad and they have the money they can. Having said as much, any country in the world has the right to refuse trade engagements with any other country for whatever reason. This is a sovereign right of every country. We are not there yet.