Current forecast: Zimbabwe (5% chance)

Last month, the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) became operational, meaning there are now 1300 people whose responsibility is for planning and executing military operations in the African theater.

It is estimated by some in the US intelligence community that the US will import 25% of its oil from Africa by 2015 (that number is currently 15%). Along with other rare natural resources present in Africa, this means the continent will likely become increasingly important to the growth and survival of the American empire in coming years.

A place like Sudan, for example, offers an opportunity for the incoming administration , as it has billions of barrels of oil reserves, a significant Muslim population, and also harbors a well-known humanitarian crisis that would put a human face on any intervention, silencing much of what opposition may exist. This may not be the best example as intervening in Sudan would raise major issues with China, but it goes to show that the many conflicts and problems in Africa would likely provide sufficient cover if an imperial intervention is considered expedient.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. An incident involving Somali pirates will not count. Any attack under the flags of the UN or NATO involving the U.S. military will count.

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