“A strong opposition party is the responsibility of the Citizens of any democracy-loving nation. Yes, there are opposition parties already, but most are not serious national organisations and are just survival projects for the politicians who run them to put food on their tables.

A hypothetical, ideal position would be a clean split of a party like the ANC, with people of credible liberation history and all, some who have been ministers etc..If such a split takes at least 40% of the ANC votes, it would immediately form into a strong party that cuts short the crushing majority currently enjoyed by the ANC. I can even suggest a name, RANC, Reformed ANC or PANC, Progressive ANC!”

As a Zimbabwean living in South Africa, I am never short of excitement and intrigue as the events in these two Southern African neighbours compete for world headlines.

On 11 September as if to challenge the US in grabbing international headlines, on a day they were commemorating the loss of hundreds of American lives in the multiple terrorist attacks that rocked their nation a few years ago, Zimbabwe achieved a historic moment of its own by inking an agreement for an Inclusive Government of National Unity on the same day. This was of course under the dubious mediation of non-other than South African President Thabo Mbeki.

Naturally Thabo Mbeki was basking in the after-glow of the clinching of this historic moment. Indeed, he had achieved what many thought was nigh to impossible, getting Mugabe to not only speak with Tsvangirai and shake his hand, but indeed to treat him as an equal and as a credible political opponent.

Barely 24 hours later, Mbeki had to quickly abandon the euphoria of the sweetness of achievement and fight for his political life. The next day, September 12, while he was still in Zimbabwe, a high court judge had unwittingly dug Mbeki a very deep political grave, by concluding that his conduct and that of his government indeed smelt of political manipulation in the prosecution of political opponents and was tantamount to abuse of authority and a flouting of the constitution of the Republic.

The disaffection of Mbeki in his party which prompted his recall, besides the judge’s ruling, also ironically included his hitherto stubborn and ineffective mediation and the general handling of the Zimbabwean crisis which in a couple of years had produced little mileage. His party colleagues were sidelined in this mediation effort and were obviously at variance with his ideology of quiet diplomacy.

I just give this narration to lend credence to my belief that the issues and affairs of South Africa and Zimbabwe are largely intractable, from the way the countries were colonised, the cross-pollination of tribes across the countries as a result of the Mfecane (tribal unrest orchestrated by Tshaka around 1820) and colonialism, their challenges under colonialism, the history of their liberation movements and now the interplay of their post independence challenges.

I argue in a book that I am publishing soon that South Africa’s propensity to go the way of Zimbabwe is high on many fronts, and therefore it needs to recognise and watch that it does not fall into the same traps that consumed Zimbabwe.

One of these fronts that come to the fore in the wake of the events of the past two weeks is the dangers of a monolithic, omnipotent political party. The ANC is to South Africa what Zanu PF has been to Zimbabwe until a few years back, when the MDC has come onto the Zimbabwean political scene with the aggression of a Tsunami.

The main danger of such a political party is not so much when it devours its own children; (we say in shona, “munhu arumwa nembwa yake”, meaning “it’s a dog that has bitten its owner..”) but when such a party begins to believe that it has a divine right to rule. When that happens, the party entrenches itself into power without a scant regard to delivery on basics to the electorate, the basics governments are meant to deliver.

The party also then embarks on looting and corruption with reckless, gay abandon; daring anybody, including the justice system to challenge it. When challenged, such a party identifies “counter-revolutionary elements” within the justice or other systems (such as white farmers in Zimbabwe after the “No” vote in the constitution referendum) and vows to crush them. Such a party normally has rabble-rousers of scant education and wisdom, who drive the momentum against all sanity and common sense (juxtapose Julius Malema to Chenjerai Hunzvi and later Chinotimba).

Such a party also claims the liberation is its sole possession, and conscripts former veterans of the liberation to come out in support of their ill-conceived, power-mongering machinations with the basic message that, “look, do as we say or else war”. (Compare Zanu PF war Veterans and MK Veterans, marching in fatigues at the trial of Jacob Zuma).

Such parties also take advantage of the prosperous years to entrench themselves in power without the populace knowing. The next thing they do is change the constitution to get a strangle hold on power, so much so that by the time the voters wake up, their votes do not count for much for they can be suppressed with impunity.

Now my point in this brief contribution is simple. Zimbabwe discovered the hard way that allowing these things to be entrenched without opposition only makes the battle nigh impossible to wake up one day and try to challenge the status quo. Much of the pain and aggravation of the past nine years suffered by Zimbabweans was largely in their quest to establish for themselves some democratic space. But now, after at least 19 years of largely unchallenged rule (not forgetting PF-Zapu of course, which never quite challenged Zanu PF before being swallowed into Zanu PF). Zanu PF was both surprised and indignant that somebody honestly wanted to challenge its hold on power, indeed wanted to dislodge it from power. This was unfamiliar territory and the reaction was both vicious and vindictive, leaving us where we are today, several disputed and rigged elections, many politically motivated murders, killings and maimings and an animal called GNU hitherto unknown in our part of the world.

My admonition to straight thinking ANC members is, take the cue. Wake up and smell the coffee, because ANC is walking the path of Zanu PF. As time goes on, more and more desperate measures will have to be taken to keep holding on to power, such as land grabs in Zimbabwe. ANC will not be popular forever, especially given the likelihood to pander to economically unwise, populist policies that the new administration will be inclined to do, under pressure from their alliance partners such as Cosatu.

A strong opposition party is the responsibility of the Citizens of any democracy-loving nation. Yes, there are opposition parties already, but most are not serious national organisations and are just survival projects for the politicians who run them to put food on their tables. A hypothetical, ideal position would be a clean split of a party like the ANC, with people of credible liberation history and all, some who have been ministers etc..If such a split takes at least 40% of the ANC votes, it would immediately form into a strong party that cuts short the crushing majority currently enjoyed by the ANC. I can even suggest a name, RANC, Reformed ANC or PANC, Progressive ANC!

Although it may not achieve much in the elections of 2009, now would be the right time because the momentum is there for such. The ordinary, level headed ANC member is fully aware of the dangers of failed governance when they look across the Limpopo and more so when they look closer home. The average, level headed South African, although tired of Mbeki, did not necessarily agree with his ouster in the way he was ousted. Mbeki does not have to lead this party if he does not want to, but people like Mlambo-Ngcuka, Terror Lekota and many others would be credible enough to carry the day.

That way, my humble submission is that the cost of multi-party democracy and strong opposition politics, if paid for now, will be much cheaper than in another fourteen years from now…